SEPTEMBER 20 2022 Inflation Cooled Again in August, But Higher Rates Still Coming Canada’s headline inflation rate cooled again in August, even a bit more than expected. The consumer price index rose 7.0% from a year ago, down from 7.6% in July and a forty-year high of 8.1% in June, mainly on the back of […]

SEPTEMBER 16 2022 Housing Softens Again in August The full effects of the most recent rate hikes have not yet manifested. Statistics released yesterday by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the slowdown that began in March in response to higher interest rates continued in August, albeit at a slower pace. Home sales […]

SEPTEMBER 9 2022 Job Market Weakens As Economy Slows The August employment report, released this morning by Statistics Canada, was considerably weaker than expected. Higher interest rates have slowed the red-hot labour market. The Canadian economy shed 39,700  jobs in August, missing market expectations of a 15,000 rise and bringing cumulative declines since May 2022 to 113,500 […]

SEPTEMBER 7 2022 The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight policy rate by 75 basis points today to 3.25% and signalled that the policy rate would rise further. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening (QT), reducing its holdings of Government of Canada bonds, which […]

AUGUST 17 2022 Macklem’s Op-Ed (emphasis is mine) National Post Comment, August 16, 2022 Inflation in Canada has come down a little, but it remains far too high. After rising rapidly to reach 8.1 per cent in June, inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) was 7.6 per cent in July. The good […]

AUGUST 16 2022 Gasoline Prices Dipped, But No Time To Celebrate While we are all grateful that gasoline prices declined from record highs in July, today’s release of the July inflation data shows that the underlying inflation momentum remains too strong for comfort. Governor Macklem will likely continue to hike the policy rate aggressively when […]

AUGUST 15 2022 Housing Slowdown Continues in July Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the slowdown that began in March in response to higher interest rates continued in July, albeit at a slower pace. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems fell by 5.3% between June and July 2022. […]

AUGUST 10 2022 It was widely expected that US consumer price inflation would decelerate in July, reflecting the decline in energy prices that peaked in early June. The US CPI was unchanged last month following its 1.3% spike in June. This reduced the year-over-year inflation rate to 8.5% from a four-decade high of 9.1%. Oil […]

AUGUST 5 2022 The Canadian Economy Is Slowing–Job Markets Will Begin To Shift The July employment report, released this morning by Statistics Canada, is a real head-scratcher. The job numbers fell for a second consecutive month, but so did the number of job seekers, so the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a historic low of […]

JULY 27 2022 Crystal-ball gazing to predict the economic future can be a murky business. And some of the latest polling of Canadian economists shows just how opaque the view can be. The Globe and Mail surveyed 15 prominent Canadian economists about what, they think, is going to happen. There is general agreement that a […]