SEPTEMBER 20 2023 August Inflation Hotter Than Expected Canada’s inflation rate accelerated more than expected for the second consecutive month, mainly driven by higher gasoline prices. This will not be a one-month wonder as gasoline prices rose further in September. The consumer price index increased 4.0% in August from one year ago, the fastest pace since […]

SEPTEMBER 15 2023 Home Sales Dipped Once Again Last Month In The Wake of Two Consecutive BoC Rate Hikes Not surprisingly, buyers moved to the sidelines last month as the central bank took the overnight policy rate up to 5.0%. Home sales posted a 4.1% decline between July and August, well below the 10-year moving […]

SEPTEMBER 8 2023 August Jobs Report Beat Expectations Following a marked decline in employment in July, Statistics Canada reported a gain of 40,000 net new jobs in August. Hiring increased in professional, scientific and technical services and construction and declined in educational services and manufacturing. Population growth outpaced the growth in net new employment, depressing […]

SEPTEMBER 6 2023 Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Acknowledging Economic Slowdown With last Friday’s publication of the anemic second-quarter GDP data, it was obvious that the Bank of Canada would refrain from raising rates at today’s meeting. Economic activity declined by 0.2% in Q2; the first quarter growth estimate decreased from 3.1% to 2.6%. […]

SEPTEMBER 1 2023 RATE HIKES ARE DEFINITELY OFF THE TABLE The Canadian economy weakened surprisingly more in the second quarter than the market and the Bank of Canada expected. Real GDP edged downward by a 0.2% annual rate in Q2. The consensus was looking for a 1.2% rise. The modest decline followed a downwardly revised […]

AUGUST 16 2023 Housing Market Sales Dipped in July, Spooked By Rate Hikes According to Shaun Cathcart, the Canadian Real Estate Association’s Senior Economist, “Following a brief surge of activity in April, housing markets have settled down in recent months, with price growth now also moderating with its usual slight lag. Sales and price growth are […]

AUGUST 15 2023 July Headline Inflation Rose to 3.3%, But Core Inflation Improved The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% y/y in July, up from a 2.8% rise in June. The acceleration in headline inflation was widely expected due to a base-year effect on gasoline prices, as a sizeable monthly decline in July 2022 (-9.2%) […]

AUGUST 4 2023 The Long-Awaited Labour Market Slowdown The Canadian economy shed 6,400 jobs in July, far weaker than the 25,000 gain that was expected. The jobless rate was 5.5%, the third consecutive monthly rise. This likely improves the chances the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines in September. Wage inflation, however, re-accelerated, […]

Canadian Inflation Falls Within Bank of Canada’s Target Range; Food and Shelter Costs Remain High

June inflation data released this week by Statistics Canada showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-over-year (y/y), slightly below expectations. This was the lowest CPI reading since February 2022.

JULY 14 2023 Bank of Canada June Rate Hike Spooks the Housing Market The Canadian Real Estate Association says the BoC’s surprise rate hike in early June cooled activity following a two-month solid start to the spring housing season. Home sales posted a 1.5% gain between May and June, tepid by recent standards. Sales were up […]